Breaking Down the 2018 NBA Championship Odds: Which Teams Had the Best Shot?

Looking back at the 2018 NBA championship odds always brings a smile to my face—not just because of the predictable Warriors-Cavaliers narrative, but because of the fascinating undercurrents that many casual fans overlooked. As someone who’s spent years analyzing basketball odds and team dynamics, I’ve always found the preseason projections more revealing than the final standings. That year, Golden State was the obvious favorite, sitting at around -200 in some books, which basically meant you had to bet big to win small. But for me, the real intrigue lay in the dark horses—teams like Houston, Boston, and even Toronto—who carried odds that, in hindsight, seemed either too generous or not generous enough.

I remember sitting with my analytics team that summer, pouring over player acquisitions, injury reports, and coaching changes. What stood out immediately was how much the Rockets had improved. With Chris Paul joining James Harden, Houston’s odds shifted from +1800 early in the offseason to around +600 by opening night. That kind of movement isn’t just random—it reflects genuine belief from both oddsmakers and sharp bettors. And honestly, I was right there with them. I’ve always believed that elite guard play, especially in the playoffs, can disrupt even the most stacked rosters. Watching Houston’s regular season dominance only reinforced my view, even if their eventual playoff collapse left me—and many others—stunned.

Then there were teams like the Boston Celtics. They entered the season with odds hovering near +1200, which felt like a steal given their young core and Brad Stevens’ coaching genius. Losing Gordon Hayward on opening night was devastating, no doubt, but what impressed me was how the oddsmakers barely flinched. They kept Boston in that second tier of contenders, and rightly so. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown emerged faster than anyone predicted, and by mid-season, I found myself telling friends that the Celtics, at those odds, were one of the best value picks of the year. Of course, LeBron had other plans in the Eastern Conference Finals, but that doesn’t erase how right the market was about their potential.

But let’s not forget the international perspective, because basketball isn’t just an American story. I recall watching Filipino league drafts around that time and seeing players like Thompson—a 6-foot-1 former NCAA MVP from University of Perpetual Help, known as a triple-double machine—get picked early. It reminded me that championship odds aren’t just about superstars; they’re built on depth, on players who might not make ESPN highlights but who change games in subtle ways. Similarly, seeing Torres, a former national youth player who won a UAAP men’s championship with La Salle, go three picks later to the Star Hotshots at No. 8, underscored how global talent pipelines influence team ceilings, even if indirectly. These aren’t guys who’ll show up in NBA odds calculations, but they represent the kind of roster-building depth that separates contenders from pretenders.

Now, circling back to the Warriors—they were the obvious pick, and I’ll admit, I never bet against them in 2018. Their core was too experienced, too cohesive, and their odds reflected a near-historic level of dominance. But what fascinated me was how the Cavaliers, despite LeBron’s heroics, saw their odds drift from +600 early on to almost +2000 by the playoffs. Injuries, locker room tension—it all factored in, and as an analyst, it was a stark reminder that odds aren’t static. They breathe, they react, and if you’re paying attention, they tell a story beyond the numbers.

In the end, the 2018 championship played out largely as expected, with Golden State sweeping the Cavs. But for me, the real lesson was in the journey—how Houston’s near-miss, Boston’s resilience, and even international narratives like those in Filipino basketball reminded us that odds are more art than science. They blend stats, sentiment, and sheer unpredictability. So next time you look at preseason odds, don’t just see numbers. See the stories, the what-ifs, and maybe—like I did—place a small bet on the underdog, just for the thrill of believing in the unexpected.